The US-Israel war on Iran entered day 108 on Monday (June 15) with an end in sight. The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding earlier today to end the war, with the agreement scheduled to be signed in Switzerland on Friday (June 19).
US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and stated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen upon formalization of the agreement. Iran’s National Security Council indicated that the agreement would result in an “immediate and permanent” cessation of hostilities across all fronts, including Lebanon.
The announcement was welcomed by global markets, with prices falling 4% to $84 a barrel and Asian stock markets rising. However, Israel has not yet acknowledged the deal. Trump also criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him “difficult” and saying Israel should be “very thankful” to the US for securing the agreement.
Donald Trump was born on June 14, 1946. He recently celebrated his 80th birthday on Sunday, June 14, 2026, which he commemorated by hosting an unprecedented “Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Freedom 250” cage-fighting event on the White House’s South Lawn.
One US official said Tehran did not want the announcement of an agreement to come before midnight in Iran, which would have fallen on President Donald Trump’s birthday.
They got their way — at least partially.
The US and Iran have conflicting messages on what comes next after the agreement is signed. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said 60-day nuclear negotiations will begin only once the US releases billions in frozen funds, while a U.S. official rejected Iran’s assertions.
Israel has yet to comment on the agreement. Trump criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him “a very difficult guy.” Israeli forces launched airstrikes in Beirut earlier on Sunday, before news of the agreement.
On evaluating the movements of the on different time frame charts, I find that despite the developments on the U.S.- Iran peace deal, markets remain focused on the final outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting on June 16-17, while the recently announced World Bank report released on Thursday reveals economic growth is forecast at 2.5% this year, down from 2.9% in 2025 as the ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic.
I find that, though technical formations on charts can reverse suddenly amid geopolitical uncertainty, short-term moves can be mapped on charts, as gold price behaviour depends on geopolitical developments and macro changes, but the impact depends on the intensity of the jolt created by both at a particular time.
While both events are in the same week this time, let’s see what happens if the peace deal goes through on time or, once again, it fails.
Technical Levels to Watch
In a daily chart, gold futures, after opening the day with a gap-up at $4,314.37, tested the day’s high at $ 4,356.70, and the day’s low at $4,306.80, and are trading at $4,350.35.
Though gold futures are trying to hold the key support at the 200 EMA ($43,01.77), signalling a surge in selling pressure due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover”, formed by the 9 EMA ($4,312), 20 EMA ($4,412) and 50 EMA ($4,554) have pierced the 100 EMA ($4,577).
I anticipate that any upward move in gold futures could face significant resistance at the 20 EMA ($4,412), where the big bears could load fresh shorts with a stop loss at $4,487 for a target at $4,176.88.
In the 1-Hr. chart, though, gold futures are on a bullish engulfing after testing a low at $4,045 on June 10, but facing significant resistance above the 200 EMA ($4,235.34), and trying to hold the immediate support at the 50 EMA ($4,199).
Undoubtedly, a breakdown below this could push the gold futures to retest the significant support at $4,124 tonight, as all the Exponential Moving Averages are below the 200 EMA (4,310), signalling weakness yet to take its toll before today’s closing if the gold futures fail to test the immediate resistance at $4,398.64.
Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold and oil at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations.
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