Kedia Advisory – prices rallied 1.81% to settle at ₹154,817, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing oil prices, which reduced fears of prolonged higher interest rates. Geopolitical tensions remained a key driver, with the U.S. initiating a blockade of Iran’s ports, though signals of continued diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran helped limit safe-haven spikes. Rate cut expectations improved, with markets pricing in a 29% probability of a 25-bps cut this year, up from 12% last week. On the macro front, U.S. CPI rose 0.9% in March, pushing annual inflation to 3.3%, while core CPI edged up to 2.6%, indicating lingering inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve minutes suggested a hawkish tilt, with some policymakers open to further rate hikes.
Meanwhile, China extended its gold-buying streak to 17 months, adding 160,000 ounces in March, highlighting continued central bank demand. Physical demand remained mixed, with India seeing slight festival-led buying ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, while China premiums softened amid slower retail demand.
Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.45% to 7,409. Gold finds immediate support at ₹153,360, with a downside test of ₹151,910 possible. Resistance is seen at ₹155,600, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward ₹156,390.
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