Gold Futures at Inflection Point as US-Iran War Nears 60-Day Mark

However, soon after, the failure of President Trump’s attempt to gain control over Greenland on January 7, 2026, caused gold to lose its war premium status. Gold futures experienced a sharp decline from the record peak, which led the futures to test lows of $4,422 on January 2, 2026, due to profit-taking.

Once again, despite a strong reversal that tested the next high at $5,433.80 on March 3 due to the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran on February 2, 2026, gold futures faced significant resistance at $5,126.85 between February 4 and 20, 2026. This resistance was followed by another peak at $5,433.80 on March 2, 2026, after which a sell-off continued until March 18. A steep slide pushed gold futures to test fresh lows at $4,123.43 on March 23, 2026, as gold had already lost its safe-haven status due to continued threats from President Trump, while Iran consistently damaged US military bases in the Middle East and Israel.

I observed that Brent oil futures tested a peak at $119.55 on March 9, and continued to hover above $96 before retesting the peak on March 31, 2026. This war has raised fears of an energy crisis due to Iran’s choking of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, 2026, effectively halting global trade through this critical route.

Now, the renewed threat of a global energy crisis following the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the US blockade of the Gulf has reversed the economic drivers behind the directional moves of precious metal prices.

Today, with gold futures trading at an inflection point, marking the completion of 60 days of the US-Israel war on Iran, and with President Trump seeking congressional approval to continue this war, gold futures are showing weakness. They are trading at $4,581, just below the key level tested on January 12, before heading upward to test the record peak on January 29, 2026.

At the same time, Brent oil futures are trading at $111.40, and are at $105.43, indicating a potential breakout soon once news breaks about the renewed escalation of the US-Iran war. President Trump is reportedly considering more military options against Iran, while Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports amounts to an “extension of military operations” by Washington, which is “intolerable.”

Today, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the consequences of the war in Iran and regional instability are “dramatically worsening with each passing hour.”

He wrote on X, “Now is the time for dialogue, for solutions that pull us back from the brink, and for measures that can open a pathway to peace.”

Meanwhile, the Israeli army claims to have hit 40 sites across southern Lebanon over the past day, allegedly used by Hezbollah, despite a ceasefire nominally being in place. At least 44 Iranian seafarers have been killed, and 29 injured since the war’s inception, according to the head of Iran’s Merchant Marine Union.

The fatalities include 22 civilian sailors, 16 fishermen, and six dock workers killed between February 28 and April 1, Iranian Merchant Mariners Syndicate General-Secretary Saman Rezaei told Al Jazeera on Friday.

Under the War Powers Act of 1973, the president has 60 days to conduct military action in response to an imminent threat or an attack on the United States, unless Congress has voted to authorize war. Without explicit congressional approval, the law states that once this deadline passes, the president “shall terminate any use of the United States Armed Forces.”

Many lawmakers consider Friday, May 1, to be the 60-day mark, based on President Trump notifying Congress of the beginning of hostilities on March 2. Some Senate Republicans argue that this should mark an inflection point where Congress must step in to authorize the conflict or at least conduct further oversight. However, others contend that the president can unilaterally extend US military involvement for another 30 days, while some Republicans believe that ceasefire days do not count toward the total.

The disagreement adds uncertainty to a conflict that has raised questions about Congress’s role in checking the president’s war powers abroad. The extent of that power has been a subject of intense debate among lawmakers since the war began earlier this year.

Now, the question is whether President Trump can reset the clock?

Bruce Fein, a US constitutional and international law expert and former US associate deputy attorney general, spoke to Al Jazeera about the legal complexities and constitutional implications of the War Powers Resolution, which requires the US president to seek congressional approval for a conflict that extends beyond 60 days.

“I was there when the War Powers Resolution was passed in 1973. It’s in many respects very incoherent,” Fein told Al Jazeera, noting that a statute cannot “override the United States Constitution, which is unequivocal; only Congress can authorize a transition from peace to war unless we’ve actually been attacked.”

Tehran did not attack the US, Fein said, describing the war as a “criminal war of aggression against Iran.”

“If you look at the War Powers Resolution, nowhere does it say the president can go to war for 60 days, and if Congress doesn’t now authorize it, then the war is over,” he said.

But Fein warned of loopholes in the law.

“A president can say at any time, ‘Oh, we haven’t bombed in 37 minutes. The war is terminated, so now you start the 60 days running again,” he said.

“There’s nowhere in the resolution that says, this is when the clock starts, and this is when the clock stops.”

I conclude that the answer to this question could be near this possibility as President Trump has already expressed his inclination on Thursday.

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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk, as this analysis is based only on observations.