The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has moved from a bearish to a neutral outlook after spot gold prices fell further, capturing about 58% of its historical maximum drawdown. The ETF has also surpassed its 95th percentile monthly Value at Risk, prompting the analyst to hold rather than sell more shares. Future gold performance is expected to be rangebound due to improving real interest rates in the U.S. and other developed markets, which may weigh on gold prices. While loose financial conditions and fiscal risks previously supported gold gains, even mild normalization of these factors could limit GLD’s returns. The analyst maintains a moderate gold position for strategic diversification but with low conviction due to uncertain market dynamics.
Leave a comment