As expectations grow that XRP may fall further in the short term, an analysis says the variables investors should watch more closely are the liquidity cycle and macroeconomic trends rather than the price itself.
The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on April 17 that Versan Aljarrah (버산 알자라), founder of investment firm Black Swan Capitalist, said in a recent post on X, formerly Twitter, that the market’s questions about XRP’s price are framed incorrectly.
Aljarrah said investors should first look at how market structure is changing rather than fixating only on whether XRP will drop further. He said short-term price moves alone make it hard to read XRP’s role properly, and that liquidity cycles, macroeconomic variables and its long-term position within financial infrastructure should be considered together.
XRP has shown significant volatility this year. It slid from $1.84 at the start of the year to below $1.13, then rebounded to $1.39. Even after the rebound, uncertainty over the possibility of further declines remains.
Aljarrah did not deny the possibility of a short-term drop. He said such moves are a common process in a cyclical market structure. He explained that the cycle recalibrates leverage, clears out weak positions and prepares for the next expansion phase. He said market volatility should be seen not as temporary noise but as part of structural change.
He also criticised technical analysis. Aljarrah said many analysts use technical analysis for XRP price forecasts, but the method is inherently heavily reliant on past data. He said it may help confirm trends, but has limits in spotting leading shifts in liquidity, position imbalances and structural transitions in advance. He added that such limits can be more pronounced in areas with complex structures, such as the crypto market.
He cited regulatory changes, exchange liquidity conditions and expanding institutional participation as variables that affect XRP’s price. He said these factors interact to make short-term price moves less predictable. He said there are growing numbers of movements that are difficult to explain with chart analysis alone.
Aljarrah’s core argument is that XRP should not be viewed only as a speculative asset. He said XRP could become part of a liquidity and settlement layer that can support a modernised financial system. In that view, macroeconomic trends become more important. He said that as money supply expands and the purchasing power of fiat currencies gradually weakens, funds tend to move into assets expected to benefit from that change. He said XRP could play a meaningful role in such an environment.
He said he places more weight on long-term positioning than on short-term reactions. He emphasised that rather than trying to buy at lower prices when prices fall, it is important to move in line with larger liquidity flows and infrastructure cycles. He said XRP’s volatility is not an exception to avoid, but part of a process of structural evolution.
While the market has focused on XRP’s short-term ups and downs, Aljarrah urged that the direction of the question should now change. He said a more important criterion than whether it will fall further is how XRP can be used within what kind of financial structure, and what position it can take amid changes in regulation and liquidity conditions. Attention is turning to whether future discussion around XRP will shift from short-term price forecasts to long-term utility and changes in market structure.
People keep asking me if XRP is going lower.
I think they’re asking the wrong question.
Let me be clear, this is just how I see the system and how I position within it.
TA reads price action. I’m looking at liquidity structure, positioning, and the macro conditions driving… pic.twitter.com/sYRPcECfaa
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