Gold, silver firm as Fed hold, Hormuz oil spike hit equities – Kitco PM Report

(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices are modestly higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while rising oil prices, firm Treasury yields and a sharp equity selloff kept defensive demand in play. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,043.60 an ounce, up 0.12%, while spot silver was trading near $57.26, up 0.23% on the session.

Gold’s session range was $3,995.20 to $4,048.80, leaving the metal above the $4,000 area but still below the $4,041.65 to $4,072.40 retracement zone that has capped the latest rebound attempts. Silver’s session range was $57.09 to $57.26, with the metal holding above Tuesday’s low but still below the $58.67 to $59.00 resistance area identified in the latest short-term setup.

North American equities closed sharply lower as technology and AI-linked shares sold off after the Fed decision and renewed oil-price pressure hit risk appetite. The S&P 500 fell 112.63 points, or 1.52%, to 7,316.15, the Nasdaq Composite lost 433.97 points, or 1.74%, to 24,442.94, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,153.18 points, or 2.19%, to 51,594.14 and the Russell 2000 fell 47.49 points, or 1.61%, to 2,906.31. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite fell 415.92 points, or 1.16%, to 35,333.78.

European equities closed mostly lower as the U.S. Fed decision, Middle East risk and technology weakness weighed on sentiment. The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.88 points, or 0.29%, to 645.01, France’s CAC 40 lost 50.51 points, or 0.60%, to 8,408.27 and Germany’s DAX slipped 3.53 points, or 0.01%, to 25,460.48. London’s FTSE 100 rose 37.39 points, or 0.34%, to 10,908.41.

Positioning after the FOMC decision remains hawkish for metals even though the Fed left rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Three FOMC voters dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike, and Chair Kevin Warsh said the decision should not be characterized as a pause, while reaffirming the Fed’s 2% inflation target and avoiding strong forward guidance. The market response was defensive: equities sold off, the dollar held firm, oil rallied and Treasury yields stayed elevated. The 10-year Treasury yield was near the 4.6% area, while DXY stayed above 101.00, leaving gold supported by equity weakness and geopolitical risk but capped by the prospect that the Fed is not finished with tightening.

The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open but highly stressed transit under active military and shipping pressure. Iran launched renewed missile attacks on U.S. forces in the region after U.S. and Saudi strikes on Tehran-backed militias, while the broader conflict continued to threaten Gulf shipping lanes and energy infrastructure. Brent crude jumped 7.3% to $88.09 a barrel, while WTI traded near $84.79, reviving the inflation-rate channel that has repeatedly limited gold’s upside. For gold, the impact remains two-sided: geopolitical risk and equity stress support defensive demand, but the oil spike keeps inflation expectations and yields elevated. For broader markets, the trade was oil bid, equities sharply lower, the dollar firm and precious metals only modestly higher.

Traders are watching post-Fed rate pricing, Thursday’s GDP data, Friday’s PCE inflation report and any new disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move above $4,048.80 would improve gold’s short-term setup, while a break back below $3,995.20 would put the $3,959.80 and $3,942.10 support levels back in focus.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading near $84.79 a barrel, while Brent crude settled near $88.09. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and trading above 101.00. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.6% area.

Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the $4,041.65 to $4,072.40 retracement zone and continue to struggle below the 50-period moving average near $4,058 and the 100-period moving average near $4,071. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,048.80, with a sustained move targeting $4,066 and then $4,114. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,995.20, with deeper downside targets at $3,959.80 and then $3,942.10. First resistance is seen at $4,048.80 and then at $4,066. First support is seen at $3,995.20 and then at $3,959.80.

Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.11 and the 100-period moving average near $58.78, while the metal continues to hold above rising trendline support near $56.88. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.67, with a move above that level targeting $59.00 and then $60.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.88, with deeper downside targets at $56.11 and then $54.84. First resistance is seen at $58.67 and then at $59.00. Next support is seen at $56.88 and then at $56.11.