Gold Buyers Are Coming Back. What Happens Next Could Decide the Rally.

Gold investors are buying again, potentially adding fresh fuel to the metal’s rebound.

Global gold-backed exchange-traded funds pulled in $3 billion in July, snapping two straight months of outflows, according to the World Gold Council last week. Holdings rose by 23 metric tons to 4,068 tons.

“There are tentative signs that Western investment demand is beginning to recover,” wrote Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo, in a Tuesday note.

Spot gold traded around $4,400 per troy ounce early Wednesday, up about 9% this month but 21% below its record high near $5,600 in late January. The metal is down 2% this year.

But the comeback has been uneven. Europe led in July, with gold ETFs attracting $2 billion, their second-strongest monthly inflow this year. North America recorded just $71 million of inflow.

That leaves a potentially important source of demand on the sidelines. The World Gold Council described North America’s July flows as a “tentative recovery,” with the region remaining the only one to post net ETF outflows.

Asian funds, meanwhile, bought $616 million of gold ETFs in July.

The investor comeback follows a sharp reversal in gold’s fortunes earlier this year. After surging to record highs in January, the metal fell sharply as higher bond yields and a firmer dollar weighed on investment demand.

The selloff prompted Wall Street analysts to retreat from some of their most bullish price forecasts. But other sources of demand held up: central banks and Asian investors continued accumulating gold even as Western asset managers pulled back.

A stronger return by Western investors could add another pillar of demand to the market. North America, in particular, has room to catch up after its modest July inflows.

“The demand picture is broadening again,” Hansen wrote.