Fragile Iran ceasefire fuels ‘TINA’ comeback in us stocks and defence

That enthusiasm faded quickly.  

Global equities reversed when traffic through the strait again came to a halt, with Iran closing it the day after reopening. 

Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told CNBC that markets are treating the crisis like Trump’s tariff “liberation day,” assuming he can raise and lower the temperature at will, even though “Iran has been attacked, and they have a higher pain threshold.” 

Investment manager Orbis told the same outlet that a sustained equity recovery depends on uninterrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas.  

Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Orbis, said equity markets are taking a “‘glass half full’ view” and that the key question is whether the strait “is actually going to reopen again.”