Investing.com — Foreign investors are retreating from Indian stocks at the fastest rate on record, as the protracted energy crisis stemming from the U.S.-Iran conflict threatens to derail the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
In just over three months, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have offloaded a staggering $18.84 billion in local shares, officially eclipsing the previous full-year record set in 2025.
Capital rotation favors AI hubs over oil-dependent markets
The mass exodus highlights a widening “narrative gap” between India and its North Asian peers. India’s $4.8 trillion equity market remains highly sensitive to oil prices and rupee volatility.
Global capital is increasingly rotating toward AI-linked economies like South Korea and Taiwan. Analysts note that as geopolitical tensions simmer, investors are prioritizing markets driven by semiconductor demand, a catalyst largely absent from the Indian equity landscape.
The divergence is stark: South Korea and Taiwan have seen combined inflows of over $9 billion so far this month following a temporary ceasefire, while India has faced an additional $3 billion in outflows.
Foreign funds outflows suggest that even as Middle East tensions fluctuate, the lack of a clear AI or tech-hardware driver is leaving Indian indices “bruised,” with over $600 billion in market value wiped out since last year’s peak.
Domestic support fails to counter expensive valuations
Despite the foreign retreat, India’s domestic retail and institutional investors remain a pillar of support. Local mutual funds have injected $31 billion into the market this year, buoyed by record participation in monthly systematic investment plans (SIPs).
However, the domestic “cushion” has proven insufficient to stop the from sliding 8% year-to-date.
Valuations remain a primary sticking point for international desks. BofA Securities noted this week that even after the recent correction, the Nifty 50 remains expensive compared to emerging-market rivals.
As the rupee hovers near record lows and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is forced to intervene, the “India Premium” is facing its most rigorous test in a decade. Until a clear catalyst emerges to bring FIIs back, analysts expect India to continue trailing its regional peers.
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