Will SEC Approval Change Coinbase Stock Narrative

• Coinbase Global recently secured temporary SEC approval under the Innovation Exemption for trading tokenized US equities in the US, alongside reporting more than US$1b of decentralized exchange volume for these tokenized stocks on its Base network.
• This combination of regulatory clearance and early transaction traction highlights Coinbase Global’s push to turn tokenized equities into a new on-chain transaction and services line, in addition to its core crypto activity.
• We will now look at how Coinbase Global’s investment narrative is shaped by the SEC Innovation Exemption for tokenized US equities.

Spot emerging Coinbase Global peers pushing on-chain finance further by scanning our hand picked list of 20 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks, now shaping the next wave of tokenized assets and crypto infrastructure.

Coinbase Global Investment Narrative Recap

To own Coinbase Global, you need to believe the business can turn its crypto rails, tokenized assets, and stablecoin stack into a more balanced revenue mix, not just a trading shop tied to volumes. The key near term swing factor is still transaction activity on platforms like the main exchange and Base. The SEC Innovation Exemption could help, but only if real on-chain equity demand shows up at scale.

The biggest immediate risk remains a prolonged period of muted trading and fee pressure, while cybersecurity incidents or higher compliance spend could further strain profitability. In that context, tokenized equities and new products such as DeFi Earn look additive rather than transformational on their own, at least for now.

The Brazil rollout of DeFi Earn is the clearest operational echo of the tokenized equities story. Both push Coinbase Global deeper into on-chain yield and lending, using partners for infrastructure and curation. DeFi Earn routes USDC into an audited Morpho vault with no lock up, and the US version has already attracted nearly US$500m in deposits since 2025.

For you as an investor, the link to today’s catalyst is about proof of use. If DeFi Earn in Brazil gains traction, it supports the idea that Coinbase can plug everyday users into on-chain yield and credit, not just trading. That would help diversify revenue away from spot volumes, but it also raises execution and risk management demands around smart contracts, third party partners, and regulatory scrutiny.

Coinbase Global’s narrative projects US$8.5b revenue and US$2.1b earnings by 2028. This assumes 8.3% yearly revenue growth and a US$0.8b earnings decline from US$2.9b today.

Uncover how Coinbase Global’s fair value indicates a 97% potential upside to its current price that could narrow quickly as sentiment shifts.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest Coinbase Global analysts lean hard into regulatory risk. They see tighter rules and rising compliance costs keeping revenue nearer US$7.0b and earnings around US$613.5m by 2029. That is far below the consensus path and reflects a view that products like tokenized equities and DeFi Earn might force a rethink of earlier pessimism or reinforce it.

Explore 9 other Coinbase Global fair value estimates, including one that suggests there could be as much as 85% downside from the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don’t just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that’s truly your own.

Looking For More Coinbase Global Investment Ideas?

If this Coinbase Global story has sharpened your view on on-chain finance, it can help to compare it with other businesses at different stages of quality, income potential, and risk. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you filter for traits that matter to you, then see which stocks actually fit those preferences in minutes.

• If you care most about quality at a reasonable entry point, start with a shortlist of companies that screen as both financially robust and attractively priced through our 32 high quality undervalued stocks.
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• If you want to balance growth stories like Coinbase Global with steadier income payers, scan a focused universe of higher yielding companies through the 8 dividend fortresses.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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