June 21, 2025
Tangible Assets

Gold Price Forecast: Profit Booking May Continue Unless Trade War Updates Surface- Should Buy Or Sell?


GOLD

Markets now look to comments from Fed officials for policy cues. Unless President Trump or Chinese officials release any updates on the trade war, this profit booking may persist.

As gold reacts to changing global fundamentals, investors need to be watchful of such important signals as US economic indicators, interest rate directions, and geopolitical uncertainties. Here’s where gold might be headed this week and how you should be positioned.

Gold prices experienced increased volatility during the previous week, first rising to a record high of USD3,500 per ounce on COMEX before easing below USD3,300. The rally was fueled by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and economic uncertainty mounted. Key triggers were U.S. President Donald Trump‘s disparagement of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and trade tensions between the U.S. and China, showing no signs of abating. Trump threatened that the U.S. economy would slow unless interest rates are reduced now, putting added pressure on the Fed.
Though the gold prices quickly corrected as Trump stepped back from sacking Powell and expressed positivity regarding possible trade talks with China. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fueled the conflicting messages by advocating for de-escalation without indicating any timeline. Global mood was shaken up as the IMF’s reduced global growth estimate for 2025 came in at 2.8 per cent, and the inflation expectations have been raised higher.
Adding to the uncertainty, President Putin suggested peace initiatives on Ukraine, and the White House was said to be weighing tariff reductions on Chinese imports.

Despite the dip, investor interest continues to be centered on central bank autonomy, high inflation expectations, and mixed U.S. economic data, such as mixed PMI readings and durable goods orders.

Markets now look to comments from Fed officials for policy cues. Unless President Trump or Chinese officials release any updates on the trade war, this profit booking may persist.

Strategy for Gold: Sell Gold

Stop Loss: above Rs 96,500 and Target: Rs 93,500/92,800

(Recommendations by Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, as per TOI report.)





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