Daily Natural GasDespite a three-day slide, buyers appeared near the 200-day moving average, sparking intraday short-covering rallies. However, each bounce has been met with renewed selling interest, confirming a “sell the rally” pattern. Technical resistance remains layered between $3.791 and $3.859, but a true trend reversal would require a close above the 50-day moving average
Is Oversupply from Storage and Output Keeping Bulls on the Sidelines? Last week’s storage injection came in at 120 Bcf, significantly higher than the five-year average of 87 Bcf. This marks the second week in a row of triple-digit builds and pushes inventories to 2,375 Bcf—now 3.9% above the five-year average. The year-on-year storage deficit
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As a result, national demand has stayed light to moderate, while ERCOT-driven regional strength hasn’t been enough to lift the overall market. NatGasWeather also confirmed the lack of sustained heat will keep cooling degree days near or slightly above average, but still insufficient to drive stronger consumption. Are Storage Builds and Production Growth Tipping the
Will Mild Weather and High Storage Forecasts Pressure Prices Further? Forecasts for above-normal spring temperatures and light national demand are adding bearish pressure. Record-setting heat in Texas is a regional exception, with highs in the 90s and 100s driving local demand. But for much of the Lower 48, weather is expected to stay mild, curbing
Daily Natural GasThe market’s failure to reclaim $3.733 on Monday signaled waning buying interest, exposing the June contract to downside risk. Should bearish momentum persist, traders are eyeing a potential retreat toward the minor pivot at $3.438. A break above $3.900 would be needed to confirm renewed upside strength, opening the path to test $4.062
Is Technical Pressure Signaling a Deeper Pullback? The daily chart suggests ample room for additional downside movement, with the next significant support level marked at $2.199. Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% short-term retracement level of $2.995. A break above this could spark short-covering activity, but upside momentum would likely stall near the 50%
Daily Natural GasCurrent price action shows natural gas testing major support at $3.924. If this level holds, the market could target minor resistance at $4.094, followed by $4.253. The critical trigger point for a decisive upside breakout sits at $4.317. Conversely, a breakdown below current support could accelerate selling pressure toward $3.732, with further downside
Production Holds Steady Despite Falling Rig Counts Despite a drop in the U.S. natural gas rig count—down seven last week to just 96—output remains strong. Lower-48 dry gas production averaged 106.4 Bcf/d on Friday, up over 4% from a year ago. This persistent output is meeting softening demand head-on. Industrial and residential usage remains subdued,
U.S. natural gas prices fell on Thursday after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected inventory build coupled with forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week. Natural gas futures were down 4.6% to trade at $4.05/MMBtu at 11.00 am ET, reversing the multi-year high of $4.35/MMBtu they reached on March 10. U.S. utilities added 9