Market expectations for consistent East Coast temperatures in the 80s-100s have turned toward a mix of showers and 70s-80s, undercutting peak summer demand in key urban corridors that typically drive July natural gas consumption. The cooler pattern has removed immediate weather-based upside catalysts while leaving futures vulnerable to additional selling. Is the Supply-Demand Imbalance Capping
Models from ECMWF projected lower Cooling Degree Days for the 10-15 day window, signaling weaker demand from power providers in the Midwest and South. The initial bullish outlook, with expectations of 80s to 100s across East Coast cities, was replaced by forecasts of showers and temperatures in the 70s-80s, directly impacting regions that typically drive
The bearish tone was underlined by strong lower-48 dry gas production, which held at 107.4 Bcf/day, up 3.3% year-on-year, while demand was notably soft at 74.0 Bcf/day, down 5.4% from a year ago. This imbalance between resilient supply and tepid demand limited the market’s ability to respond to supportive weather signals and kept upward momentum
Can Hot Summer Weather Lift Natural Gas Futures? Traders are closely watching heat trends, with NatGasWeather projecting highs in the 80s-100s across much of the U.S., and 105-115 in inland California and the Southwest. A brief break is expected later this week with showers and 70s-80s in the West and Northeast, but a return to
Yet the West is set to moderate, potentially capping gains. Weather-driven demand is clearly boosting bullish sentiment in the short term, but gains may hinge on whether elevated temperatures persist beyond the current forecast window. Will the EIA Storage Report Inject Volatility? Traders are bracing for potential volatility with the release of Wednesday’s EIA storage
Technically, momentum is pointing lower with the 200-day moving average the next target at $3.560. This is followed by a pair of main bottoms at $3.437 and $3.381. On the upside, gains are being capped by three tops at $3.791, $3.832 and $3.859. The most important resistance is the 50-day moving average at $3.900. Is
Daily Natural GasDespite a three-day slide, buyers appeared near the 200-day moving average, sparking intraday short-covering rallies. However, each bounce has been met with renewed selling interest, confirming a “sell the rally” pattern. Technical resistance remains layered between $3.791 and $3.859, but a true trend reversal would require a close above the 50-day moving average
Is Oversupply from Storage and Output Keeping Bulls on the Sidelines? Last week’s storage injection came in at 120 Bcf, significantly higher than the five-year average of 87 Bcf. This marks the second week in a row of triple-digit builds and pushes inventories to 2,375 Bcf—now 3.9% above the five-year average. The year-on-year storage deficit
As a result, national demand has stayed light to moderate, while ERCOT-driven regional strength hasn’t been enough to lift the overall market. NatGasWeather also confirmed the lack of sustained heat will keep cooling degree days near or slightly above average, but still insufficient to drive stronger consumption. Are Storage Builds and Production Growth Tipping the
Will Mild Weather and High Storage Forecasts Pressure Prices Further? Forecasts for above-normal spring temperatures and light national demand are adding bearish pressure. Record-setting heat in Texas is a regional exception, with highs in the 90s and 100s driving local demand. But for much of the Lower 48, weather is expected to stay mild, curbing