It’s a mixed picture as far as the property market numbers are concerned this month. The portals (Rightmove and Home.co.uk) are showing ‘average price’ falls from October, albeit this drop is in line with seasonal changes. However, the mortgage indices show the reverse – small price rises.
However, this should be put into context and it’s E.surv’s index, which has probably the best summary of the market, reminds us that at the moment we are still in a lull versus the 2022 peak:
“While values remain approximately 2% lower than a year ago and 6% below their late-2022 peak, the broader picture is one of a market exceeding expectations in terms of activity, mortgage lending, and transaction volumes.”
But if that tells us ‘where we are’ at the moment, the Zoopla index shows that the next few months will be good ones in the property market for home movers and for the industry, especially in light of the end of the Stamp Duty holiday at the end of March in England:
Largest pipeline of sales working to completion for 4 years 283,000 sales worth £104bn, up 30% on a year ago.”
Overall, as long as we don’t have too many shocks this year (bearing in mind Mr Trump is back!) then buyers and sellers as well as everyone from lenders to the removals industry, can look forward to a stable year in 2025.
Property price and market indices headlines
Usual seasonal lull, as some movers wait for Boxing Day bounce
“Prices end the year 1.4% above December 2023.”
Measures of buyer demand remain positive with house price growth appearing to
gain traction
“National house price indicator continues to move higher.”
Huge stock drop confirms strong demand
“Asking prices continue their seasonal decline, falling by 1.0% since last month across England and Wales.”
Strong end to the year for UK house prices
“UK house prices up 4.7% year on year in December.”
Average house price ends 2024 with annual growth of +3.3%
“Northern Ireland maintains the strongest UK annual house price growth.”
The market is gathering momentum
“Prices still negative but market is turning.”
UK house price inflation at +1.9% compared to -1.2% a year ago
“There has been a sustained recovery in housing sales over 2024.”
Summary of the insights from this month’s indices
– Prices end the year 1.4% above December 2023, and Rightmove predicts that new seller asking prices will rise by 4% next year, with forecast mortgage rate drops set to further improve affordability and stimulate market activity.
– Despite the festive lull, activity remains substantially stronger than the same period a year ago, with the number of sales being agreed up by 22%, and new buyer demand up by 13%.
– Rightmove’s real-time data also captures the impact of the looming stamp-duty deadline on March 31st 2025:
– Sellers of smaller properties in higher-priced areas are trying to beat the deadline to avoid higher tax.
– Prices are holding up best in the first-time-buyer sector, especially homes priced below the £300,000 threshold.
– Despite the signs of a stronger 2025, headwinds remain, with the impact of Budget measures being a challenge.
– Annualised home price growth reduced to just 1.7% overall.
– Property turnover continues to be higher than during most of the last ten years and Typical Time on Market remains significantly lower than in pre-pandemic December 2019.
– The total number of new instructions entering the market during November 2024 was 10% more than during November 2023. London saw the highest regional increase, up by 17%.
– Seasonal price falls were observed in all English regions, Scotland and Wales since last month. The largest drop was in Scotland (2.2%).
– Overall, when taking inflation into account, the sales market has not yet achieved real growth.
– Northern regions see higher price growth than southern regions.
– Northern Ireland best performing area for second year running, with prices up 7.1% over 2024.
– East Anglia weakest performing region, with prices up 0.5% over the year.
– Upcoming changes to stamp duty are likely to generate volatility, as buyers bring forward their purchases to avoid the additional tax. This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025 (especially in March) and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months, as occurred in the wake of previous stamp duty changes. This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.
– Property prices are up +4.8% on an annual basis (vs +4.0% last month).
– House prices decreased by -0.2% in December.
– Northern Ireland maintains the strongest UK annual house price growth.
We’re continuing to anticipate modest house price growth this year.”
– While the housing market has been supported in recent months by falling mortgage rates, income growth and the announcement on upcoming Stamp Duty policy changes, mortgage affordability will remain a challenge for many, especially as the Bank Rate is likely to come down more slowly than previously predicted. However, providing employment conditions don’t deteriorate markedly from a more recent softening, buyer demand should hold up relatively well and, taking all this into account, we’re continuing to anticipate modest house price growth this year.
– While values remain approximately 2% lower than a year ago and 6% below their late-2022 peak, the broader picture is one of a market exceeding expectations in terms of activity, mortgage lending, and transaction volumes.
– Activity will be boosted by Stamp Duty changes in England.
– Southern England yet to flourish.
– Looking ahead, attention will turn to the government’s forthcoming long-term housing plan, which is expected to address affordability challenges and increase housing supply. While the advent of new stock is still some way off, the very clear direction of travel will give buyers cause for optimism in the longer run.
– The housing market in 2024 demonstrated its resilience, and there is cautious optimism for further stability and growth in the year ahead.
– Largest pipeline of sales working to completion for 4 years 283,000 sales worth £104bn, up 30% on a year ago.
– Affordability pressures are keeping price inflation in check.
– Buyers have become more price-sensitive in Q4 2024, paying less of the asking price in the wake of the Autumn Budget.
– North-South divide in house price growth to remain over 2025.
– We predict a continued recovery in sales volumes to 1.15m in 2025, with modest house price inflation of 2.5%.
