The bearish tone was underlined by strong lower-48 dry gas production, which held at 107.4 Bcf/day, up 3.3% year-on-year, while demand was notably soft at 74.0 Bcf/day, down 5.4% from a year ago. This imbalance between resilient supply and tepid demand limited the market’s ability to respond to supportive weather signals and kept upward momentum capped.
Can Warmer Weather Offset Bearish Storage Data
Despite the bearish EIA report, traders are watching weather models closely. Vaisala forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures across the West for July 8-12, with a shift toward warmer conditions in the eastern half of the U.S. for July 13-17, potentially boosting power sector demand.
The Edison Electric Institute reported that lower-48 electricity output rose 3.2% year-on-year for the week ending June 28, indicating robust cooling demand potential during peak summer heat.
LNG flows to U.S. export terminals held steady at 15.0 Bcf/day, up 0.2% week-on-week, adding a stable demand pillar. However, Europe’s gas storage levels remain 59% full compared to the five-year seasonal average of 68%, limiting immediate export-driven bullish impulses in the near term.
