Macquarie Strategists Forecast USA Crude Inventory Drop

Macquarie strategists are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be down by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending June 27, an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday revealed.

“This follows a 5.8 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing significantly tighter than our expectations amidst another week of disappointing net imports,” the strategists stated in the oil and gas report.

“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model an increase in crude runs (+0.2 million barrels per day),” the Macquarie strategists added in the report.

“Among net imports, we again model a sharp increase, with exports significantly lower (-1.0 million barrels per day) and imports modestly higher (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis,” they continued.

The strategists highlighted in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.

“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a nominal reduction (-0.3 million barrels per day) this week,” the strategists said in the report.

“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate another small increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks (+0.3 million barrels) this week,” they added.

The Macquarie strategists went on to state in the report that “among products”, they “look for a gasoline build (+2.3 million barrels) with distillate stocks slightly higher (+0.2 million barrels), and jet stocks modestly lower (-0.4 million barrels)”.

“We model implied demand for these three products at 14.7 million barrels per day for the week ending June 27,” the strategists went on to state.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, dropped by 5.8 million barrels from the week ending June 13 to the week ending June 20, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.

That report, which was released on June 25 and included data for the week ending June 20, showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 415.1 million barrels on June 20, 420.9 million barrels on June 13, and 460.7 million barrels on June 21, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 402.5 million barrels on June 20, 402.3 million barrels on June 13, and 372.2 million barrels on June 21, 2024, the report revealed.

Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.633 billion barrels on June 20, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 3.9 million barrels week on week and down 35.0 million barrels year on year, the report showed.

An oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on June 23 revealed that Macquarie strategists were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be down by 0.9 million barrels for the week ending June 20.

“This follows an 11.5 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing significantly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.

In a weekly petroleum status report released on June 18, which included data for the week ending June 13, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by 11.5 million barrels from the week ending June 6 to the week ending June 13.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on July 2. It will include data for the week ending June 27. The EIA weekly petroleum status report states that it provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products. The EIA describes itself in the report as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.

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