The U.S. housing market is entering a volatile new chapter this summer. Despite price growth in select regions, rising inventory and sluggish buyer demand are reshaping conditions nationwide, with affordability, high mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty driving the trend.
Buyer demand drops to multiyear lows
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications to purchase a home have fallen 39% from the same week in 2019. This signals a major collapse in demand, as high home prices, stagnant wages, and elevated mortgage rates continue to sideline buyers.
- Purchase mortgage activity remains just above record lows from late 2023.
- Refinance applications are down 79% from three years ago.
- The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.92%, a historically moderate rate but burdensome given today’s inflated home prices.
Inventory climbs across key U.S. markets
New data shows that more homes are hitting the market—but they’re sitting unsold longer.
- In Denver, active listings hit 13,599 in May—up 13.6% from the previous month and the highest since 2011.
- In Miami-Dade, inventory surged 43.3% year-over-year in April, with condo listings up over 43%.
- Nationwide, inventory grew 20.8% year-over-year in April, but remains 18.4% below 2019 levels.
Despite more choices for buyers, homes remain unaffordable for many. In Miami-Dade, for example, the median sale price hit $585,950—nearly double the April 2020 level.
High rates and price fatigue reshape the housing outlook
The housing market is feeling the aftershocks of the pandemic-era price spike and ultra-low interest rates. During 2020–2022, rates briefly dipped below 3%, prompting a buying frenzy. But that distorted home values—and the market is now correcting.
- Sellers who delayed listing are now returning, adding to supply.
- Many buyers are waiting for either lower rates or price drops.
- The result? A stalemate. Homes sit longer, but sellers hesitate to slash prices.
Where prices are rising—and where they’re falling
While many metros are cooling, others are still appreciating due to strong local economies and limited supply.
Top appreciating markets as of May 2025:
- Miami, FL: +9.4%
- Austin, TX: +7.2%
- Charlotte, NC: +6.8%
- San Diego, CA: +6.3%
- Tampa, FL: +5.7%
Markets seeing price declines:
- Boise, ID: –3.1%
- Phoenix, AZ: –2.4%
- Salt Lake City, UT: –1.8%
- Las Vegas, NV: –1.2%
Experts expect these regional splits to continue through summer.
What to watch this summer
Several factors will determine the housing market’s direction in the coming months:
- Mortgage rates: Still hovering near 7%, keeping monthly payments high.
- Inventory: Rising gradually, but still below long-term norms in many places.
- Affordability: Home price-to-income ratios remain out of balance.
Some buyers may jump in after July 4, a historically busy real estate period. But most experts agree: the U.S. housing market is no longer moving in one direction. Local dynamics, not national averages, are now driving outcomes.
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