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Spring is often a good time to sell a house, though that may not hold true in 2025.
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Home supply is rising, and government spending cuts may boost inventory even further.
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Here are 14 cities where prices could fall in the coming months.
Homeowners looking to relocate would normally be in luck as the weather warms up.
Spring usually ushers in the start of the busy season in the US housing market. In fact, a recent report from Realtor.com said that the single best week to list a home is in mid-April, since median prices and buyer demand are robust, while competition and price cuts are relatively low.
But this year could be completely different — if buyers realize how much leverage they have.
An analysis of Realtor.com’s data on the 50 largest US markets suggests that sellers’ bargaining power is waning as steadily surging home inventory puts property prices under pressure.
And that’s before accounting for the potential fallout from the sweeping budget cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency. Elon Musk, who runs DOGE, wants to eliminate government jobs in droves, which could cause a mass exodus from cities like Washington, DC — thereby bringing down home prices in certain markets even further.
That may already be happening. Home inventory in DC rose 46.5% year over year in mid-February, 48.3% in the last week of February, and 56.2% in the first week of March, Realtor.com said in its report.
Buyers are back in the driver’s seat as supply rises
For years, trying to buy a house has been a painful process. Home affordability was in the tank since prices and mortgage rates were uncomfortably high, making ownership unattainable for many. And a widespread home shortage complicated the process for everyone, even wealthier buyers.
However, significant increases in home supply are shaking up the US real-estate market.
Active home listings in early March were 27.8% higher than last year, Realtor.com reported on Thursday. That’s up from 27.5% in February, which marked the 16th consecutive month there were more houses available on a typical day than the previous year, though supply is still stretched relative to pre-pandemic levels.
Similarly, the number of unsold homes, which includes those under contract, was up by 18.2% from February last year, which made for the 15th straight month of growth. That includes newly listed homes, which were 4.2% more available compared to last February.
Major inventory improvements have made homes harder to sell. On average, US houses had been for sale for about 66 days in February, versus just over two months last year. Properties have spent more time on the market than the year before for the past 11 months, Realtor.com noted, and listings lingered longer than last year in 42 of the 50 largest US cities.
More houses on the market means that bidding wars have largely become a pandemic-era relic. Instead, sellers are resorting to price reductions to entice buyers. Nearly 17% of listings in February had received at least one price cut at some point, versus a 14.6% rate a year earlier.
“Sellers are increasingly adjusting to slower market conditions, as the share of homes with price reductions rose significantly last month,” Sabrina Speianu and Danielle Hale, researchers at Realtor.com, wrote in a report released in late February. “This trend could indicate a potential slowdown in price growth.”
The median US home price slipped 0.8%, to $412,000, from February last year, Realtor.com found. It’s worth noting that values were up 1.2% on a price-per-square-foot basis, suggesting that cheaper, smaller homes went to market.
Either way, prices aren’t moving much, which is a win for hopeful buyers after years of explosive price growth — and there could be further declines.
14 cities where home prices could fall after Elon Musk’s cuts
If DOGE’s cuts to the federal government’s workforce are as widespread as Musk would like, tens of thousands of employees may be looking for new places to live. In cities with a large share of government workers, home listings could balloon, deflating their value.
This may be playing out now in Washington — where housing inventory skyrocketed for a third straight week. That pushed median home prices in the nation’s capital down 1.6% from a year earlier.
“So far, we’re seeing more homes on the market, and modestly lower asking prices,” said Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, in a statement.
Hale and other economic researchers said in late February they hadn’t seen discernable signs of a housing supply boom in cities flush with federal workers. A few weeks later, they’re starting to see the shift — and it may have legs.
“While DC has the largest share of federal workers in the country, other highly federally employed markets could see similar shifts in the coming weeks or months,” Hale said.
Below are the 14 US cities where federal government employees make up at least 2% of the workforce, meaning their housing markets are most in danger of being shaken up by DOGE. Note that only the 50 largest markets tracked by Realtor.com were included in this analysis.
Listings include the median listing price in February, year-over-year price growth in aggregate and on a per-square-foot basis, its listing price growth since the start of this year, and the percentage of federal government employees as a share of its working population.
1. Washington, DC
Median listing price: $579,995
Median listing price growth: -3.3%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 0%
Listing price growth since January 1: 7%; $40,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 11%
2. Virginia Beach, Virginia
Median listing price: $392,500
Median listing price growth: 1.4%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 5.4%
Listing price growth since January 1: 6.4%; $25,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 7%
3. Oklahoma City
Median listing price: $314,992
Median listing price growth: -2.6%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 1.3%
Listing price growth since January 1: 4.9%; $16,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 4.2%
4. Baltimore
Median listing price: $350,000
Median listing price growth: 6.2%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 2%
Listing price growth since January 1: 5.8%; $20,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 3.7%
5. San Diego
Median listing price: $949,995
Median listing price growth: -4.7%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -2%
Listing price growth since January 1: 5.9%; $56,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 3.1%
6. San Antonio
Median listing price: $327,000
Median listing price growth: -2.4%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -2.1%
Listing price growth since January 1: 4.8%; $16,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 3%
7. Memphis, Tennessee
Median listing price: $328,050
Median listing price growth: 1.3%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 2.7%
Listing price growth since January 1: 9.4%; $31,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2.8%
8. Tucson, Arizona
Median listing price: $396,200
Median listing price growth: -1%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -1.2%
Listing price growth since January 1: 7.4%; $29,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2.8%
9. Richmond, Virginia
Median listing price: $429,653
Median listing price growth: -4.2%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 2.3%
Listing price growth since January 1: 4.6%; $20,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2.7%
10. Kansas City, Missouri
Median listing price: $379,450
Median listing price growth: -9.9%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -0.9%
Listing price growth since January 1: 7.4%; $28,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2.6%
11. Jacksonville, Florida
Median listing price: $388,098
Median listing price growth: -5.3%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -3.3%
Listing price growth since January 1: 7.6%; $29,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2.5%
12. Buffalo, New York
Median listing price: $249,974
Median listing price growth: -0.5%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 1.1%
Listing price growth since January 1: 14.8%; $37,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2%
13. Cleveland
Median listing price: $241,725
Median listing price growth: 14%
Median listing price per square foot growth: 14.9%
Listing price growth since January 1: 16.1%; $38,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2%
14. Tampa, Florida
Median listing price: $399,000
Median listing price growth: -4%
Median listing price per square foot growth: -4%
Listing price growth since January 1: 6.5%; $26,000
Federal government employees as a share of workers: 2%
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