Gold traded near a record high as Federal Reserve minutes and a downward revision of US payrolls reinforced expectations that policymakers will cut interest rates in September.
Several Federal Reserve officials acknowledged there was a plausible case for cutting interest rates at their July 30-31 meeting before the central bank’s policy committee voted unanimously to keep them steady. Swap traders now expect a quarter-point cut next month and a roughly 20% chance for a half-point reduction.
US job growth was probably far less robust in the year through March than previously reported, according to government data released Wednesday. The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision.
While economists largely anticipated a decline, some predicted a loss of up to one million jobs. Benchmark revisions were particularly scrutinized this year by markets and Fed watchers for any signs that the labor market may be cooling faster than originally reported.
The expected downward revision “supports the case for the Fed to begin a rate cutting cycle as soon as next month,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Gold probably needs the rate cutting cycle to begin before having another attempt to the upside,” said Hansen, adding that bullion may see technical support in the range of $2,475 to $2,480 an ounce.
Gold remains above $2,500 an ounce after hitting successive all-time highs in recent sessions. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, when he’s expected to set the table for an interest-rate cut while reassuring investors that policymakers can stave off a sharp economic slowdown.
With markets anticipating an imminent pivot by the Fed to lower borrowing costs, the backdrop for bullion is looking increasingly bullish. UBS Global Wealth Management’s Wayne Gordon sees prices heading toward $2,700 an ounce by the middle of next year.
US jobless claims figures due Thursday may shed further light on the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory. Lower borrowing costs tend to support bullion, which doesn’t pay any interest.
Gold has rallied by more than a fifth this year. It’s also been supported by robust purchases by central banks, increased haven demand, as well as healthy buying of physical bars in the over-the-counter market.
Spot gold rose 0.08% to $2,516.12 an ounce as of 2:48 p.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was 0.07% lower. Silver, platinum and palladium all increased.
