AMFI Data: Investor preference appears to be shifting away from gold toward equities, with March data showing a sharp moderation in flows into gold-backed investment products even as equity mutual funds saw a surge in inflows.
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of ₹2,265.68 crore in March, sharply lower than ₹5,254.95 crore in February, marking a decline of about 56.9%. The moderation in flows came as relative valuations turned more favourable for equities compared with gold.
Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) also showed that silver ETFs continued to see outflows for the second consecutive month, worth ₹683 crore in March, compared to ₹826 crore in February.
Gold Price Trends
The declining gold prices have likely dimmed the appeal for ETFs in the asset. A report by Tata Mutual Fund noted that gold prices fell around 7% in India during March, while international prices declined by 11% in dollar terms. The correction was driven by a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields and margin calls amid broader market volatility.
The report also highlighted that gold has faced one of its toughest phases in recent years, with prices declining around 20% from their January peak due to multiple global factors, including a broad sell-off across asset classes and investors liquidating gold to cover losses elsewhere.
Reflecting this trend, the net assets under management (AUM) of gold ETFs declined 6% to ₹1.71 lakh crore, while silver ETF AUM fell 13% to ₹79,805 crore.
Just today, on the derivatives front, MCX gold June futures declined 0.60% to ₹1,52,561 per 10 grams on April 10, while MCX silver May futures fell 0.70% to ₹2,42,067 per kg.
What should investors do?
Despite continued inflows, the pace of investment into gold ETFs has slowed significantly. According to Nehal Meshram, Senior Analyst at Morningstar Investment Research India, gold ETFs continued to attract investor interest, though at a slower pace compared to earlier months.
“While the pace of inflows has moderated sequentially, investor interest in gold-backed products remained positive,” Meshram said.
She added that the slowdown reflects a normalisation after a strong start to the year, along with some moderation in fresh allocations.
Despite the recent moderation in prices, gold’s long-term outlook remains constructive. Tata Mutual Fund expects gold prices to consolidate in the short term amid mixed global cues, including a stronger dollar and higher yields, with price swings of around 5% likely.
“Investors may look for accumulation on any decline in prices. We still believe that the overall market environment is going to be favourable for a strategic allocation in gold as a long-term investment in the portfolio,” added the report.
Other AMFI Data Highlights
While gold saw a slowdown, equity mutual funds witnessed strong inflows in March. Equity-oriented schemes recorded net inflows of ₹40,450.26 crore, up from ₹25,977.91 crore in February, marking a rise of about 55.7% month-on-month.
The post-correction phase in equity markets following the onset of the West Asia conflict created more attractive investment opportunities for investors.
Among categories, flexi-cap funds led with inflows of ₹10,054.12 crore, followed by small-cap funds at ₹6,263.56 crore and mid-cap funds at ₹6,063.53 crore. Large and mid-cap funds saw inflows of ₹5,307.25 crore, while large-cap funds attracted ₹2,997.84 crore.
Sectoral and thematic funds recorded inflows of ₹2,698.82 crore, and focused funds saw ₹2,424.59 crore in inflows, while ELSS was the only major category to report outflows at ₹437.34 crore.
At the same time, SIP contributions rose 7.5% to ₹32,087 crore, indicating continued retail participation in markets despite volatility.
“Despite heightened volatility driven by geopolitical developments, domestic investors have remained steadfast, continuing to invest with conviction. This structural shift towards systematic investing augurs well for the long-term stability and depth of India’s capital markets,” said Navneet Munot, MD and CEO of HDFC AMC.
Meanwhile, the broader mutual fund industry saw a sharp reversal in flows, reporting net outflows of around ₹2.40 lakh crore in March compared to net inflows of ₹94,530 crore in February. Total AUM declined 10.1% month-on-month to ₹73.73 lakh crore.
Debt mutual funds, however, led the outflows, recording net outflows of ₹2,94,987.18 crore, compared to inflows of ₹42,106.31 crore in February, with liquid funds alone seeing outflows of ₹1,34,987.64 crore.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Leave a comment