Why Kursk may prove pivotal in ceasefire talkspublished at 13:31 Greenwich Mean Time
Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent
Image source, ReutersWhen assessing how and when Vladimir Putin will agree to a
ceasefire in Ukraine, it’s important to look at what is happening on the ground
in Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian troops launched a mini-invasion last August, capturing
a chunk of the region, much to the surprise of Kyiv’s allies and the
embarrassment of Moscow.
With the help of around 10,000 North Korean troops, Russia has
been fighting back, gradually pushing Ukraine’s forces back towards the border.
That task is now almost complete.
“The Ukrainian military thought that they could hold Kursk as a
bargaining chip in negotiations, and unfortunately, that hasn’t panned out,”
Jack Watling, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute
told the BBC.
“The Russians have been able to close the salient and push them
out of Russian territory just before the key negotiations get underway.”
It’s not just a diplomatic setback. Around 60,000 Russian troops
were deployed to Kursk, tying up valuable resources and helping to slow
Moscow’s advance along Ukraine’s long eastern front.
Once the last Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of Kursk,
those Russian troops will once again be available for operations elsewhere,
increasing the military pressure on Kyiv.
Ukraine was struggling to hold territory in Kursk even before
the Trump administration’s decision to withhold military and intelligence
assistance.
But even though both were quickly restored, the suspension came
at a critical time and probably helped to hasten Ukraine’s retreat.
