What’s going on here?
Indian government bond yields barely budged as traders eyed crucial US inflation data, set to be released after market hours tomorrow.
What does this mean?
The benchmark 10-year bond yield in India closed at 6.8786%, a tiny dip from its previous close of 6.8801%. This steadiness comes as retail inflation in India fell to a near five-year low of 3.54% in July, mainly due to easing food prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept key interest rates unchanged last week, focusing on inflation control amid global uncertainty. Economists hint that the RBI might start a shallow rate cut cycle later this year, potentially shifting to a neutral stance in October due to post-monsoon food inflation risks.
Why should I care?
For markets: Waiting for the US cue.
Traders are fixated on the upcoming US inflation data to gauge the timing and extent of potential rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Market expectations are divided between a 25-basis-point and a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with a total of 100 basis points cuts anticipated over 2024, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The 10-year US bond yield dipped to 3.90% on Monday and remained stable during Asian trading hours.
The bigger picture: Global economic interplay.
Indian bond yields staying steady amidst domestic inflation lows and global market volatility highlight the intricate dance of global economics. With Indian markets set to close on Thursday for Independence Day, traders are particularly alert. The expected US Fed rate cuts and the RBI’s potential policy shift underline the interconnectedness of global monetary policies and their ripple effects on national economies.