Investors are bracing for a flood of new data and earnings to sift through this week, with inflation, jobs, and GDP prints on tap through Friday, while Big Tech firms report first-quarter results.
Markets are watching for any signs of an economic slowdown as anxiety builds concerning the looming impact of tariffs. While the effects of President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs of 10% on most countries won’t be seen in first-quarter data, traders will be on high alert for signs that the economy is weakening as duties kick in.
Talk of stagflation—which sees inflation staying high while the economy slows— has risen, making the coming GDP and personal consumption expenditures readings highly important for markets.
Meanwhile, all eyes will also be on the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants, four of which are slated to report earnings this week.
“This will contribute to a whopping 40% of S&P 500 market cap reporting this week. It’s fair to say that these Mag-7 earnings will go a long way to dictating the tone of the week,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
Here’s what’s coming for markets this week.
Tuesday
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey
Consumer sentiment will kick off the week’s big economic data points, and could be pivotal for investors nervous about a spending pullback.
US shoppers have increasingly signaled pessimistic feelings about the economy, prompting fears that weaker spending could dent earnings. The index hit a multi-year low last month.
Wednesday
- ADP Private Payroll Report
The monthly tracker of private payrolls will inform markets as to the health of US labor — any fallout implies that growth may be starting to buckle. It is a leading indicator ahead of a highly-anticipated jobs report published Bureau of Labor Statistics, due out on Friday.
The median forecast is for 110,000 private payrolls added in March, compared to 155,000 in February.
First-quarter US economic growth will be a key data point for investors wary of a potential recession, a scenario that commentators say has grown more likely amid Washington’s tariff policies.
After the economy notched a 2.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter, economists expect a stark slowdown, estimating a 0.2% expansion. Dropping consumer sentiment, disrupted trade, and labor market jitters could all play a role.
However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast predicts a GDP print of -2.5% for the quarter.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge will help investors determine how the early months of Trump’s tariff policies have impacted prices for consumers. An upside surprise could send markets reeling amid rising worries of tariff-induced stagflation.
Wall Street expects PCE to rise 2.2% year-over-year in March compared to 2.5% in February.
The Facebook parent will report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, setting the tone for big topics like artificial intelligence spending and broader strength of the mega-cap tech trade that’s boosted the stock market for much of the last three years.
Bank of America expects healthy first-quarter results and sees the company’s AI-driven ad improvements playing out for several more quarters. However, Meta’s guidance for the current quarter may be conservative, the bank predicted.
Analysts expect Meta to report revenue of $41.3 billion for the quarter and earnings per share of $5.23.
Alongside Meta, Microsoft will also report its quarterly performance. Strong AI and cloud demand are expected to bolster the firm’s results, with analysts at Cantor especially encouraged by capex shifts to more operational spending.
Analysts expect Microsoft to report revenue of $68.4 billion and earnings per share of $3.22.
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Thursday
The e-commerce titan will follow report on Thursday, with results projected to come in strong. However, second-quarter uncertainty is much higher, BofA said, and the looming questions related to the impact of tariffs could dictate Amazon’s earnings outlook and future plans.
Analysts expect Amazon to report revenue of $155.1 billion and earnings per share of $1.36.
Apple will close out this week’s Magnificent Seven line-up. According to Morgan Stanley, it’s known that the firm benefited from iPhone sales being pulled forward as consumers rushed to buy new devices ahead of possible tariff disruptions. Investors will likely seek clarity on trade topics, Apple’s exposure to China, regulation, and the firm’s AI projects.
Analysts expect Apple to report revenue of $94.2 billion and earnings per share of $1.61.
Friday
- April nonfarm payrolls report
The week will close out with one of the most crucial data points: monthly payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The April report will be a crucial indicator of how the labor market is holding up amid deep uncertainty and whether US employers continue to add new hires at a brisk pace.
Any decisive shift in unemployment or job growth could send recession fears spiking and shift interest rate expectations for the year.
Consensus forecasts expect US employers added 124,000 in April compared to 228,000 added in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
