US Banks Kick Off Earnings Season
US bank stocks kick off earnings season this week after share prices experienced their worst start to a year in several years. Investors will be watching closely to see whether strong earnings, combined with the ongoing, if fragile, US–Iran ceasefire, could act as a catalyst to lift banking stocks.
Conflicts in the Middle East, alongside growing risks in private credit markets, have weighed on sentiment. As a result, major Wall Street bank stocks have tumbled, marking their weakest start to the year since the 2023 regional banking crisis.
Earnings season begins on Monday with Goldman Sachs, followed by JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo on Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will also report on Wednesday.
Expectations are for Q1 profits to be solid supported by resilient net interest income, stabilising interest rates (NII), stronger investment banking revenues, easing regulatory pressures, and elevated trading activity.
According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 Financials Index is expected to deliver Q1 earnings growth of around 16%, well above the index average of 12.5%.
Outlook: Geopolitics vs Growth Risks
The key question now shifts to the outlook.
The US–Israel conflict with Iran, which escalated in March, has driven higher energy prices and renewed inflationary pressures. However, the full economic impact is likely to take months to materialise.
On one hand, US banks have reasons to remain optimistic, supported by strong capital positions and resilient consumer activity. On the other hand, rising inflation and slowing growth could begin to weigh on key revenue drivers such as M&A activity and loan growth.
As a result, the importance of Q1 results may be secondary to forward guidance. The outlook for Q2 and beyond will likely depend heavily on whether the US and Iran can reach a more durable agreement.
JPMorgan – Technical Analysis
JPMorgan Chase will report ahead of the open on Tuesday. As the largest US bank by assets, it is widely considered a bellwether.
The share price reached a record high of 335 at the start of the year before entering a downtrend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, falling to support around 277.
More recently, the stock has rebounded above 300, trading near 309—a monthly high—supported by ceasefire optimism and improving sentiment.
- A move higher could target 324 (February high), bringing the record high of 335 back into focus
- Immediate support lies at the 200-day SMA around 300
- Below this, key support sits at 277
Bank of America – Technical Analysis
Bank of America has followed a similar pattern to JPMorgan. The share price reached a record high at the start of January before declining to a 2026 low of 46. Since then, the stock has rebounded, pushing above the 200-day SMA and reaching a high of 53.
- A sustained move above 53 could open the door to 56 (February high) and 57 (record high)
- Support is seen at 50 (200-day SMA)
- A break below 46 would signal a new lower low
Netflix Earnings Preview
Netflix is set to report earnings on April 16 after the market close.
Expectations are for:
- 15% year-on-year earnings growth to $0.76 per share
- Revenue to rise ~15% to $12.16 billion
In Q4, Netflix reported revenue of $12.05 billion (+18% YoY) and EPS of $0.56, driven by steady subscriber growth and accelerating advertising revenue.
Key themes to watch:
- Advertising momentum, particularly the ad-supported tier
- Subscriber growth sustainability (after surpassing 325 million users)
- Content pipeline strength, including major releases like Bridgerton Season 4 and Stranger Things
The company’s exit from its prior deal discussions with Warner Bros. Discovery removed a key overhang, helping the stock recover.
How to Trade Netflix Earnings
The share price previously hit a record high of 134 before falling sharply to 75—a level last seen in 2024.
Since then, the stock has rebounded, moving above the 50-day SMA and reclaiming the $100 level.
- Bulls will target the 200-day SMA at 106 and the November high near 115
- Immediate support sits at $100
- A break below $90 would signal a lower low
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