Upon evaluating across various time chart patterns, I observe that the prevailing bullish sentiment could dissipate rapidly. This assessment is based on declining oil prices, which are not a reliable indicator for gauging optimism regarding a potential peace deal.
Furthermore, President Trump continues to threaten Iran with “decapitation,” and the Houthis have claimed responsibility for a strike on a Saudi airport today.
After again backing down on attacks against Iran to allow for negotiations, President Trump said Monday: “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation. … We’ll see what happens.”
He also called Iran’s leadership “unbelievably duplicitous” after Tehran said it had no plans to hold direct talks with Washington, despite his claim that negotiations would start Monday and that a “deal is imminent.”
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed Tuesday they carried out a drone strike on “a sensitive target” at an airport in southern Saudi Arabia. The Saudis have not commented on the claim.
Iran has denied that the two sides are talking to resolve the more than five-month conflict, and earlier U.S. statements signalling a likely imminent deal have proven overly optimistic, but oil prices tumbled on Bessent’s statements.
Today, when the conflict between the US and Iran has reached its 158th day, I find that gold futures have been trading in a narrow range between $4,215.98 and $3,958.39, after experiencing a sharp slide on June 5, 2026, after facing significant resistance at $4,508, and testing a low at $4,045.79 on June 11, 2026.
Recently, after facing significant resistance at $4,175.49 since July 29, gold futures closed the day at $4,096.22. Once again, gold futures retested this key resistance on July 30 and closed the day at $4,163.45 despite testing the day’s low at $4,086.
But on July 31, despite attempting to breach this key resistance, gold futures experienced a sharp sell-off and closed at $4,106.56 after testing the day’s low of $4,075.53.
Undoubtedly, after opening this week, despite retesting this support at $4,075.53, gold futures have consistently remained under selling pressure: despite testing the day’s high at $4,145.35, they closed at $4,089.75.
On Tuesday, after opening the day at $4,108.97. tested the day’s low at $4,150.85, and the day’s low at $4,098.25, gold futures are trading at $4,134.25, trying to hold the immediate support at $4,124.12, where a breakdown could push the futures to test the next key support at $4,075.53, as despite the repeated threats by President Trump, choking of the Strait of Hormuz is intact till today.
I conclude that the major issue plaguing Washington is the depleting stocks of munitions, and more importantly, the Patriot anti-missile interceptors, which seem to be a reason behind Trump’s shifting stances on Iran every day.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is based solely on observations.
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