Man Who Called 2008 Crash Says Now Is the Time to “Invest in Early-Stage Gold Stocks”

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions shorting subprime mortgages before the 2008 crash, said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, that gold’s multi-year rally still has room to run and that mining equities are the sharpest tool for capturing it.

“I do think we’re in the beginnings or the early stages of a long-term bull market for gold. As people lose faith in paper currencies, gold as an alternative will continue to grow,” Paulson said. His specific recommendation was blunt: “I think the greatest way to invest is to invest in early-stage gold stocks.”

A Track Record That Earned the Microphone

Paulson pivoted from mortgage shorts to gold back in 2009, arguing that the fiscal and monetary stimulus following the crisis would eventually erode the dollar. The call has aged well. Gold prices have roughly quadrupled since 2009, and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) has returned 339.66% since January 2, 2009. Spot gold briefly touched a record $5,600 an ounce in late January 2026 before pulling back to roughly $4,121.

Paulson attributes the trend to two demand drivers: central banks continuing to expand gold reserves as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar, and rising private-sector demand from investors hedging against currency debasement.

Why He Prefers Miners Over Bullion: Novagold

Paulson singled out one name. “NovaGold has 40 million ounces of gold indicated and measured resources and reserves at the market [capitalization] of $4.2 billion,” he said, adding: “I think the best way to play gold is with stocks like NovaGold, if not NovaGold itself.”

NovaGold (NYSE:NG) is a development-stage company with a market cap around $2.72 billion and no revenue. Its flagship is the Donlin Gold project in Alaska, where ore grades of 2.22 g/t run more than double the global industry average. In Q2 FY2026, Novagold posted a net loss of $25.5 million and finished the quarter with roughly $370.2 million in cash and term deposits, per its SEC filing. Shares closed at $6.21 on July 22, 2026, down 33.37% year to date.

A Conflict Investors Should Weigh

Paulson’s CNBC appearance came the same day Novagold announced it would acquire the 40% stake in the Donlin Gold project held by his own firm, Paulson Advisers. As part of the transaction, Paulson is set to become co-chairman of Novagold. His bullish commentary is therefore linked to a freshly disclosed financial and leadership interest in the very company he is promoting.

The deal remains pending, requiring shareholder, court, and regulatory approval, with both parties targeting a Q4 2026 close. Novagold already lifted its Donlin stake to 60% in January 2026 after completing a $1 billion acquisition of Barrick’s 50% interest in the project.

Barrick, the Seller on the Other Side

Barrick Mining (NYSE:B) exited Donlin last year and has been riding the bullion rally. Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $6.00 billion, up 64.5% year over year, on a realized gold price of $4,177 per ounce. The company raised its quarterly dividend 40% to $0.17 per share and shares are up 76.41% over the past year.

Near-Term Views Diverge

Even among gold bulls, near-term views diverge. JPMorgan recently cut its Q4 2026 gold price forecast following a volatile stretch, while maintaining a bullish long-term view. Prediction markets already validated the longer arc: Polymarket contracts on year-end 2025 gold resolved with prices closing in the $4,200 to $4,300 range.

Paulson’s call carries the weight of one of Wall Street’s most famous macro trades. It also carries a live financial interest in a specific ticker. Both facts belong in any reader’s calculus. Gold price predictions, like all market forecasts, are opinions rather than guarantees, and the Novagold transaction remains subject to closing conditions that have yet to be satisfied.

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