On evaluating the movements of the futures on different time frame charts, I find that despite the developments on the U.S.- Iran peace deal, markets remain focused on the final outcome of the U.S. on Wednesday, while the recently announced World Bank report released on Thursday reveals economic growth is forecast at 2.5% this year, down from 2.9% in 2025 as the ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic.
I find that, though technical formations on charts can reverse suddenly amid geopolitical uncertainty, short-term moves can be mapped on charts, as gold price behaviour depends on geopolitical developments and macro changes, but the impact depends on the intensity of the jolt created by both at a particular time.
While markets are going to experience an immediate jolt tonight with the announcement of the interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to manage inflationary pressure, gold futures look ready to sense the devastating impact of this jolt if gold futures take a step out from the current level.
Technical Levels to Watch
On the daily chart, after opening the day at $4,350.97, it tested the day’s high at $ 4,384.07, and the day’s low at $4,337.22, and is trading at $4,350.35.
Though gold futures are trying to hold the key support at the 200 EMA ($43,18.60), signalling a surge in selling pressure due to the formation of a “Bearish Crossover”, formed by the 9 EMA ($4,332), 20 EMA ($4,403), and 50 EMA ($4,539), have pierced the 100 EMA ($4,567).
I anticipate that any upward move in gold futures could face significant resistance at the 20 EMA ($4,403), where the big bears could load fresh shorts with a stop-loss at $4,487, for their target at $3,696.50, which is likely to be tested within the next 8 days.
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Disclaimer: Readers are advised to take any position in gold at their own risk, as this analysis is solely based on observations.
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