Did the US economy shrink in the first quarter of 2025? Economic malaise is a crucial worry among investors, and the first read of GDP – as well as the Fed’s favorite inflation figure – are key.
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A broad look at Trump’s first quarter in office
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is released three times, and the first estimate due out imminently is the most influential publication. This quarter is different for several reasons. First, it serves as an initial report card for President Donald Trump, who entered office early in the quarter.
Secondly, imports of Gold into the US skewed the outcome to the outside. Evaluating the impact of these transactions – where investors front-run tariffs – makes assessing the data more complicated. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast indicates a slight decline in output, even when excluding Gold imports.
The first GDP release is prone to surprises and has the greatest impact as it is the closest GDP release to the quarter than just ended.
The US also releases the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (core PCE) at the same time. It is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. Through higher interest rates, the central bank lowered inflation to below 3%, but it struggled to hit the 2% target.
During this event, we will also cover the release of ADP’s private-sector jobs report. The data for April helps set expectations for Friday’s official jobs report – the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls.
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