- US Dollar still reigns, though perhaps not much longer
- GBP: best-performing G10 currency vs. USD year-to-date (YTD)
- NETH25: FXTM’s best-performing stock index YTD
- Cocoa: FXTM’s best-performing commodity YTD
- Nvidia: best-performing stock on the S&P 500 YTD
- Solana: FXTM’s best-performing crypto YTD
We’re in the final stretch of the 2024 Olympics, set to end August 11th.
The United States is leading the Olympic medals tally after weeks of sporting conquests across disciplines and arenas.
In similar fashion, we scan across global financial markets and highlight the world champions of their respective asset classes (and within the FXTM universe), so far in 2024 (year-to-date).
G10 currency (vs. US dollar):
Although GBPUSD is down about 0.3% so far this year, it’s still beating the rest of the G10 pack in terms of being the smallest year-to-date loser against the US dollar. Even the fast-recovering Japanese Yen remains in 6th place.
To be clear, the US Dollar index still boasts a year-to-date gain of 1.77% at the time of writing.
While King Dollar still reigns supreme, its gains may be wiped out over the rest of the year, if the Federal Reserve follows through with the aggressive US rate cuts that markets expect.
If US rates are lowered at a faster pace compared to its G10 peers, that could help push the likes of GBP into a positive year-to-date performance.
Stock Index:
FXTM’s NETH25 stock index tracks the performance of the AEX index – the Amsterdam Exchange index.
The AEX index measures the overall performance of the 25 biggest and most actively traded shares on Euronext Amsterdam.
Led by semiconductor giant ASML – Europe’s largest tech company by market cap, also the biggest stock on the AEX index – ASML’s surge has also boosted its host index simultaneously.
Despite falling by as much as 8.9% since mid-July, amid the broader declines for global equities, the NETH25 index is still holding onto much of its gains garnered from earlier this year.
The NETH25 is still up about 11% on a year-to-date basis.
However, those year-to-date gains may be further eroded if there’s further selling across global equities amid fears of a US recession that darkens the global economic outlook, as well as lessened spending on semiconductors by AI-industry players.
Metal/Commodity:
This global commodity still holds a year-to-date advance of 103%, far beating the likes of gold (+16.9% YTD) and US crude oil (+5.1% YTD).
There has been a global shortage of cocoa, as evidenced by US inventories of cocoa beans falling to their lowest level in over 4 years.
However, such gains may not last.
Markets expect a recovery in west African production of cocoa to recover in the months ahead. The global cocoa market is projected to flip from a deficit into a surplus (more cocoa beans supplied than demanded by sweet-toothed consumers) next year.
With markets well aware of this outlook, no surprise that cocoa prices has only managed lower highs since April 2024, though retaining its triple-digit year-to-date gains, for now.
Overall, global commodities, from cocoa to crude oil, may well see further declines if a US recession is confirmed, along with still-sluggish Chinese economic growth, which combined to weigh down the global economy.
US Stock (on the S&P 500):
Much has already been made about how Nvidia has been a star performer on the US stock market in recent years.
It’s been on a seemingly unrelenting quest of posting new record highs at the height of the AI-mania, before crashing back down to earth in recent weeks.
Though having fallen by about 27% since its all-time high set on June 18th …
Nvidia still holds a year-to-date gain of nearly 100%
(99.7% to be more precise, before US markets open on August 8th).
This stock may yet recover back to its record highs, once the ongoing selloff abates.
Wall Street still predicts a 43% upside over the next 12 months, with a target price of $141.35.
If it gets there, that would be a new record high for Nvidia’s stocks in 2025, unless markets believe the artificial intelligence mania has been a lot more hype and its AI-fuelled profits have already peaked.
Cryptocurrency:
Solana’s year-to-date gains stand at 51.5% at the time of writing, exceeding Bitcoin’s YTD advance of 35%.
Given the respective debuts of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, the crypto market’s attentions have now turned to other cryptocurrencies that could be next in the ETF pipeline.
ETFs = Exchange-traded funds, which can be bought and sold like regular stocks on a centralised exchange. ETFs make it easier, and more secure, for investors (both retail and institutional) to gain access to the underlying crypto without having to directly purchase the digital asset.
If the US government turns increasingly pro crypto, especially if we see a return of President Trump to the White House after the November US Presidential elections, then cryptocurrencies stand to be restored to their recent peaks respectively.
Solana bulls (those betting that prices will rise) will be hoping that their favoured crypto could move back closer to the psychologically-important $200 level.
It remains to be seen which specific instrument will sit atop of their respective asset classes by the end of this year.
What’s more certain is that the remaining months of 2024 may yet bring more volatility, in light of heightened geopolitical tensions, fears of a US recession, as well as political uncertainties stemming from the US Presidential Elections.
That should produce large opportunities for traders and investors who remain alert to the macro picture across financial markets.
